The OODA Loop: D=Decide (Part 3 of 4)

The OODA loop is the decision cycle of observe, orient, decide, and act, developed by military strategist and United States Air Force Colonel Joh Boyd. Boyd applied the concept to the combat operations process, often at the operational level during military campaigns. It is now also often applied to understand commercial operations and learning processes.
Remember that the Loop is not a concept by itself. It is mingled with everything else: Situational Awareness, Fight or Flight, your past experiences, and your personality.
The Loop is not normally noticed in everyday life with things that are not as stressful as a life threatening experience. We all do it over and over many times a day. Knowing this gives us an opportunity to see it for what it is and try to manipulate it to our advantage from a security standpoint. The Loop is used in business and many other aspects of life but we use it in a defense/security view.
Decide:
A wise man once said:
“Right decisions are easiest to make when we make them well in advance, having ultimate objectives in mind.” Spencer W Kimball
It is difficult to come up with the perfect model when information is so imperfect. The better your observation the better your orientation the better your decision.
Boyd doesn’t articulate much about the decision step except that it’s the “component in which actors decide among action alternatives generated in the Orientation phase.”
For Boyd, it’s impossible to select a perfectly matching mental model because:
1. We often have imperfect information of our environment
2. Even if we had perfect information, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle prevents us from attaining a perfect match-up between our environment and our mental model
Consequently, when we decide which mental model(s) to use, we’re forced to settle for ones that aren’t perfect, but good enough.
It’s interesting to note that in his final sketch of the OODA Loop, Boyd put “Hypothesis” in parentheses next to “Decide,” suggesting the uncertain nature of our decisions. When we decide, we’re essentially moving forward with our best hypothesis — our best “educated guess” — about which mental model will work. To find out if our hypothesis is correct, we then have to test it, which takes us to our next step.

Semper Paratus
Check 6
Burn
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