Church Violence and Threat Indicators

 Violence and shootings in Church’s are on the increase.

In a report from the Family Research Council, an evangelical nonprofit and activist group, they identified 1,384 incidents of hostility against U.S. churches between January 2018 and December 2024.

The group recorded 50 incidents in 2018, 83 in 2019, 55 in 2020 and 98 in 2021. 

The report then found a dramatic rise in incidents beginning in 2022 when there were 198 recorded instances, followed by 485 in 2023 and 415 in 2024. 

There was then a dip last year, although 415 incidents were still reported, affecting a total of 383 churches across 43 states, according to the group.

 

In 2014, the FBI published “A Study of the Pre-Attack Behaviors of Active Shooters in the United States.” The study examines 63 active shooting incidents in the US between 2000 and 2013, in an attempt to identify “those who may be on a pathway to deadly violence.”

In the FBI study, the 63 active shooters were not readily identifiable by demographics. 

• The vast majority (94%) were male. 
• 57% were single (relationship status) at the time of the attack. 
• About one-third had an adult criminal record. 
• Nearly two-thirds had a history of abusive behavior. 

Of those active shooters included in the FBI study, 73% had a known connection to the site of the attack. In cases where the amount of time spent planning and preparing for the attack could be determined, 46% spent a week or longer. 

According to the FBI study, active shooters experienced multiple stressors in the year prior to the attack. The top stressors reported included: 

• Mental health (62%). 
• Financial strain (49%). 
• Job-related stressors (35%).
• Conflict with friends/peers (29%). 
• Marital problems (27%). 
• Abuse of drugs/alcohol (22%). 

Of the active shooters in the FBI study, 25% had a diagnosis of mental illness prior to the incident.  

Most active shooters in the FBI study displayed multiple concerning behaviors observed by others. The most frequent included: 

• Behaviors connected to mental health issues (62%). 
• Interpersonal interactions (57%). 
• Leaking information (56%). 
• Quality of thinking or communication (54%). 
• Work performance (46%). 
• Threats/confrontations (35%). 
• Anger (33%). 
• Physical aggressiveness (33%). 

More than half of the active shooters in the FBI study who had a specific target made threats or had a prior confrontation. Those threats and confrontations were almost always (95% of the time) in person, and rarely in writing or electronically. Although none of these observances were reported to law enforcement, 51% leaked an intent to commit violence. 

In the FBI study, most active shooters seemed to be acting on a grievance of some kind. Even those with no identifiable grievance demonstrated at least two concerning behaviors that were observed by others. The most common grievances were: 

• Adverse interpersonal action (33%). 
• Adverse employment action (18%). 
• Other, e.g., general hatred of others (10%). 

Of 50 active shooters in the study with an identifiable grievance, nearly half of them experienced a triggering event. 

The seemingly random nature of active shooter events is what makes them especially terrifying. In the FBI study, only one-third of the active shooters victimized only random members of the public, while two-thirds arrived at the site of the attack with a specific person or people in mind.

Here is how to fight this.  There are warning signs of potentially violent individuals

Unexplained increase in absenteeism; may include vague physical complaints

Noticeable decrease in attention to appearance and hygiene

Depression or withdrawal

Resistance and overreaction to changes in policy and procedures

Repeated violations of Church norms and standards

Increase in severe mood swings

Noticeably unstable, emotional responses

Explosive outbursts of anger or rage without provocation

Suicidal ideation; comments about “putting things in order”

Behavior typical of paranoia, such as statements like “Everybody is against me”

Increasing talk of problems at home

Escalation of domestic problems at Sunday services

Talk of severe financial problems

Talk of previous incidents of violence

Empathy with individuals committing violence

Increase in unsolicited comments about firearms, other dangerous weapons, and violent crimes

 

This is another list of things to look for from the State Department

Behavioral Red Flags

• Unusual Behavior: Individuals displaying erratic or unusual behavior, such as extreme agitation, aggression, or withdrawal, should be monitored closely.
• Fixation on Violence: A preoccupation with violence, weapons, or violent events can be a significant red flag. This may include verbal statements, written communications, or social media posts.
• Threatening Language: Direct or indirect threats against individuals or the church community should always be taken seriously. This includes verbal threats, notes, or online messages.
• Isolation: Individuals who isolate themselves from the community, especially after being an active participant, may be experiencing personal crises that could escalate.

Physical Indicators

• Unusual Dress or Carrying Items: Be alert to individuals wearing inappropriate clothing for the weather (e.g., heavy coats in summer) or carrying large bags or packages that could conceal weapons.
• Signs of Distress: Visible signs of distress, such as shaking, sweating, or extreme nervousness, may indicate someone is in crisis or planning harmful actions.

Contextual Clues

• Changes in Attendance: Sudden changes in attendance patterns, such as an individual who starts attending more frequently or abruptly stops, can signal underlying issues.
• Conflict with Congregants: Ongoing conflicts with other members of the congregation that are not resolved can escalate into more serious situations.

Response

Developing a Reporting System

• Encourage congregants to report any suspicious behavior or threats immediately. Provide clear instructions on how to report concerns and who to contact.
• “Having a clear and accessible reporting system is crucial for early intervention,” says security expert Mary Johnson.

Train Congregants and Staff

• Conduct regular training sessions on recognizing and responding to potential threats. Ensure everyone knows the warning signs and understands the importance of vigilance.
• Role-playing scenarios can be an effective way to practice response strategies.

Establish Clear Protocols

• Develop and communicate clear protocols for addressing reported threats. This should include immediate actions to take, such as notifying security personnel and contacting law enforcement if necessary.
• Ensure that all staff and volunteers are familiar with these protocols and can act swiftly when needed.

Foster a Culture of Awareness

• Promote a culture of awareness and vigilance within the congregation. Encourage open communication and regular discussions about safety and security.
• Emphasize that safety is a collective responsibility and that everyone plays a role in maintaining a secure environment.

Recognizing and addressing potential threats at church is a vital aspect of church security. By understanding the warning signs, promoting vigilance, and fostering a culture of awareness, you can create a safer environment for all.  

Learn body language and keep high situational awareness. Stay in yellow until you see some of these indicators then go to orange. When the behavior changes or you see indicators of other things, go back to yellow. (See “Situational Awareness Day 2019” 9/19/2019 for Coopers Color Codes)
These are especially important to learn for those who serve in Bishoprics or those who are on the stand through meetings. Being up on the stand is a vantage point where you can see most of the congregation. If this applies to you learn these indicators and more. If possible, get trained in situational awareness and threat indicators.

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