What is normalcy bias? Normalcy bias is the tendency to underestimate the likelihood or impact of a negative event. Normalcy bias prevents us from understanding the possibility or the seriousness of a crisis or a natural disaster.
Some of the most devastating events and disasters in history highlight how common it is to see normalcy bias even in extreme situations.
On the Titanic, many people refused to acknowledge the reality that the ship was sinking for hours and refused to board the emergency lifeboats. To the extent that the first lifeboat wasn’t even fully occupied when it detached from the main ship.
During Hurricane Katrina, even as it became clear that the storm would have truly devastating effects, thousands of people refused to evacuate, believing that they’d be fine staying in the homes despite repeated warnings to the contrary.
Research has found that during 9/11, almost a thousand people took the time to turn off their computers before attempting to escape. The average person took 6 minutes before heading down the stairs. Many people sought confirmation from colleagues or peers before attempting to evacuate.
In another incident, an airplane engine fire on a Boeing 737 in 1985, a significant number of the passengers were found to have stayed in their seats without attempting any kind of escape even as toxic fumes and smoke killed them.
To be clear, none of this is criticism of the people who were caught in these disasters and reacted in the way they did. Normalcy bias seems to be a part of human instinct for most of us, which means that unless we take specific steps to fight against it, it’s not surprising that it will affect our decision making.
As with most other survival-related dangers, the dangers of normalcy bias can be reduced with proper preparation. This preparation falls into one of two categories. The first is training and resources, and the second is having a defense/preparedness mindset.
The first is easy – actively fight against the instinct that tells you that “everything will be fine”. Don’t ignore the risks that you’re aware of. If you live in an area that’s affected by hurricanes every year, then make sure you have an emergency kit that’s suitable for hurricanes. Avoid high crime areas and make sure if you must go through one or be in it, be legally armed with which ever weapon you choose. Also, be trained in that weapon and ready to deploy it if needed.
Already know the most likely risks you’re facing. You may not have prepared for them properly yet because there’s a voice in your head telling you that even if it happens, your life won’t be that badly affected. You need to start ignoring this voice and start taking sensible precautions, especially for the “known” risks that are prevalent in your area.
The second thing you need to do is a mental change to work on. Essentially, rather than “freezing”, you need to train your mind to react to danger in a different way. Normalcy bias damages our ability to react because the danger we’re facing is new and we don’t have time to analyze or process it properly. Because stress causes your brain to slow down, you may fail to act appropriately in the face of disaster, often looking for reassurance or following someone else’s lead. To avoid this, you need to avoid the need for reaction/analysis altogether and jump straight into action.
How do we do this? Easy. We drill it into our habits that if scenario A occurs, the proper thing to do is action B.
Think of the “duck-and-cover” drills that schools had during the Cold War, or fire drills that happen in offices every year, or modern-day school drills for what to do if there’s an active shooter. This kind of drilling might seem dumb and pointless most of the time, but in fact the purpose of these safety drills is to try to teach people to overcome their “normalcy bias”. If you’ve been through a drill (and you’re taking it reasonably seriously), when the real thing happens, you won’t need to analyze the situation to see what to do – you’ll know the appropriate course of action and be able to act immediately. In a genuine attack/disaster situation, skipping the analysis stage (which is slowed down by normalcy bias) could be the difference between life and death.
So, how do we apply this to real life? Simple. Drill emergency procedures for attacks/disasters that you’re most likely to face.
Don’t forget that about 70% of people display signs of normalcy bias when faced with attack/disaster, so it’s not surprising that the idea of preparedness throws so many people off.
A last scenario: It’s 10pm on a Saturday night. You and your best friend have just finished dinner at a restaurant that you have been to many times before. As you are walking alone towards your car you see a stranger walking in your direction on the sidewalk. There is something about him that gives you a feeling that he is going to talk to you. No problem, it’s not unusual for strangers to talk to each other. As he approaches his focus is on you and he looks quickly left towards the street as he starts to ask you for a cigarette. His hands don’t look threatening but he’s fidgeting with his belt. Your brain starts sending you signals that this is a dangerous situation, but you don’t want to be rude, weird, paranoid or judgy. While he’s asking for a cigarette, you politely tell him sorry you don’t smoke and have a nice night. What you didn’t notice is that he has positioned his body between you and the street, putting your back to a wall. Without any apparent warning, he takes a swing at you and now you’re in a violent robbery.
To most normal people on the street, violence is not normal. But to an attacker, violence IS normal.
As the unknown contact approaches, your gut is telling you that this is high risk, but your rational brain may be trying to search for reasons to believe that there is nothing wrong here. There is a fight happening in your brain.
As the encounter develops, the unknown contact continues to broadcast signals. Looking around while talking to you, touching his pant line, moving you into a vulnerable position are all pre attack indicators. But you might be distracted by a very normal question, a request for a cigarette. As the encounter continues, your options to keep this from becoming a fight are disappearing. The bad guy is trying to act normal but he’s about to do something very abnormal. These conflicting signals are going 100 miles per hour in your brain.
To most normal people on the street, violence is not normal. But to an attacker, violence IS normal. For good moral people who are unfortunate enough to have been in violent encounters, it’s much easier to defeat this normalcy bias and to take this situation as seriously as they should. But if you’re new to the world of violence, your rational brain may be working against you.
Training to be confident in our skills, training in dealing with unknown contacts, to recognize pre attack indicators, training to communicate with skill, and educating ourselves on what violence looks like in the real world will help defeat normalcy bias. Without having seen the real-world consequences of these encounters, it’s hard to take them seriously. Thanks to the internet, you don’t need to look very hard anymore. But you do need the will to learn.
Don’t let your biases blind you to the world around you. Take your self-defense training and education seriously. Train, practice, survive!
Semper Paratus
Check 6
Burn
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